The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly higher in the night session and hovered at highs. Trading in the spot market recovered yesterday. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 31, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly higher in the night session and rose to 331,900 yuan/mt, then experienced a slight decline, maintaining a fluctuating trend around 328,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 329,210 yuan/mt, up 1.49% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) On December 31, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued detailed implementation rules for the 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy, clarifying the registration date requirements for old vehicles eligible for the 2026 vehicle retirement and renewal subsidy, further expanding the scope of support compared to 2025. For gasoline passenger vehicles, the registration date must be before June 30, 2013 (inclusive, the same hereinafter); for diesel and other fuel passenger vehicles, before June 30, 2015; and for passenger NEVs, before December 31, 2019. (2) Reuters reported on the 30th that, according to sources, Samsung and SK Hynix have obtained US approval to export chip manufacturing equipment to China in 2026. After revoking some tech companies' exemptions from US chip manufacturing equipment export licenses earlier this year, the US has temporarily eased restrictions on South Korean enterprises. The report stated that Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC previously benefited from the US exemption policy under the "Validated End-User (VEU)" system, which allows listed enterprises to import specified controlled items (including semiconductor equipment and technology) from the US without separate export licenses.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Spot market transactions recovered yesterday, as most downstream enterprises began small-scale restocking and just-in-time procurement starting yesterday. Traders reported increased inquiry willingness from downstream users, with some traders achieving sales of around two truckloads.

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